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Burning Kings At The Italian Open

July 4, 2012

In Hamburg, as I shared with you in last week’s blog, I lost a big pot early on and busted just before the final table and both times it was with pocket aces, so I thought that this is ‘unlucky’ enough and that I wouldn’t have to experience something similar soon.

However in Campione d’Italia at the Italian Poker Open we were 8 handed at the end of day 1 and I was dealt pocket kings (red kings). This hand plays itself, at least pre-flop, so raising and re-raising happened and a shorter stack than mine got it all-in and I snap called him with my cowboys.

The probability that someone at the table is holding the only hand that puts me in bad shape is 7/169 or 4.14%. Frankly I don’t know or have ever met anyone who would lay down this hand pre-flop and not get it all-in. Sure enough though the guy turns over his American Airline hand and I lose half my stack against his pocket aces!

While this is kind of unfortunate and has a small probability that it can happen in the first place, now comes the really mystical, unbelievable part:

The very next hand I get dealt the same 2 red kings again! For a second I did not know if this was real or not especially since it was the very next hand and I was still digesting the loss from the previous hand. Now the probability that I would get dealt pocket kings twice in a row is 1/169 squared or 0.0035% (actually it’s a little less because I actually got dealt the exact same 2 cards again and not just 2 kings)!

I felt like I was in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Twilight Zone’ but so be it. I said to myself “If it did not work the first time, it will work this time” but this time I was short stacked and my only move was to go all-in with this hand pre-flop and look for a caller and double up. I was getting my call from the guy just next to my opponent that crushed me before…and I am sure you can guess what he was holding…EXACTLY!! I run again into pocket rockets and needless to say I busted out!

The probability that I would run twice in a row into aces is 7/169 times 7/169 or 0.17%! Unbelievable? Yes! But not impossible! To make it deep (or win a tournament) they say you have to win your races, which means you will have to come out as a winner on all those coin flip situations where you get it in with a pocket pair and are facing two overcards or vice versa but certaintly you will have to avoid those situations where you get dealt the second best hand and lose it twice in a row!

Well, I will see how the side event goes and I will try to recoup my buy-in there or in a cash game but either way it’s a hell of an experience down here in Italy!

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